Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 13.430211 15.372453 17.466136 19.887027 22.605175 25.558822 29.007257
2025-03-16 10.334189 12.910618 15.905717 19.629436 24.118353 29.337709 35.847297
2025-03-23 8.917403 11.783130 15.278266 19.825957 25.554708 32.496832 41.507279
2025-03-30 8.014149 11.128178 15.089817 20.452929 27.470211 36.279768 48.107300
2025-04-06 7.023374 10.198493 14.393589 20.276494 28.235856 38.541950 52.791220
2025-04-13 5.929096 8.991196 13.187378 19.273801 27.774569 39.107537 55.214072
2025-04-20 5.479946 8.625736 13.073325 19.712026 29.236209 42.247845 61.169461
2025-04-27 5.077105 8.277829 12.937826 20.082318 30.590505 45.274089 67.081942
2025-05-04 4.599052 7.763584 12.505791 19.969168 31.215261 47.276597 71.619557
2025-05-11 4.140928 7.231621 11.995050 19.684062 31.542955 48.836739 75.559080
2025-05-18 3.812093 6.872297 11.713805 19.714473 32.321730 51.062462 80.536625
2025-05-25 3.563069 6.619005 11.574257 19.944759 33.401033 53.762229 86.311537
2025-06-01 3.290135 6.306395 11.324111 19.994947 34.223762 56.149407 91.788320
2025-06-08 2.996524 5.929614 10.937240 19.791263 34.623782 57.899178 96.364542
2025-06-15 2.801735 5.709161 10.792458 19.970150 35.635773 60.625994 102.546770
2025-06-22 2.698807 5.647789 10.915873 20.607934 37.431904 64.666980 110.965084
2025-06-29 2.479571 5.344317 10.584932 20.428012 37.831262 66.458804 115.832535
2025-07-06 2.165382 4.824264 9.819203 19.419323 36.742252 65.745345 116.567838
2025-07-13 2.074569 4.741791 9.855960 19.860252 38.195339 69.308060 124.487848
2025-07-20 1.981505 4.645540 9.857945 20.233134 39.540165 72.735155 132.303384
2025-07-27 1.837987 4.429155 9.610816 20.119189 39.995867 74.652299 137.624949
2025-08-03 1.687750 4.183226 9.285869 19.832169 40.112824 75.976644 141.967108
2025-08-10 1.583400 4.028195 9.130921 19.862782 40.814569 78.345605 148.197507